Zou L, Yang LZ (2009) Time series study of the impact of serious fires on fire occurrence statistics in cities of Jiangsu. Fire Safety Journal 44(7), 925-932. [In English]

Web link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2009.05.002

Keywords:

Time series, Fire disaster, Serious fire, ARIMA model, Intervention, model

Abstract: In this paper, the time series method is used to analyze the effect of fire disasters and serious fires on monthly fire occurrence statistics in 10 cities from January 1997 to December 2001 in Jiangsu province. After removal of outliers in the irregular component of the original data series and seasonal adjustments, the intervention model is applied to quantify the effect of the fire disasters and serious fires on the total monthly fire statistics in the cities of Jiangsu province. The results show that the impact on monthly fires lasts for 3 months for eight cities and 2 months for two cities. Other phenomena are also detected in these 10 cities. Finally, some explanations for these phenomena are proposed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.