Project Title: Dynamic Assessment Model of Unconventional Emergency Response Procedures

Principal Investigator: Zhang Heping

Funding Source: The Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China

Project Period: 2010-2012

partners:

Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering

Emergency Management Office of Anhui Province

Abstract:

 In recent years, more and more unconventional emergencies were reported all over the world. At present, the emergency management ability of Chinese governments is still not very adapted to be dealing with the unexpected and critical emergencies. One of the most improtant and difficult problems is how to assess the situation of the emergency and the subsequent events that may caused by the first event. This project is aimed to develop a methodology for situation assessment of all emergency response procedures, and a decision making system for emergency plan optimization. At first, a initial assessment model is set up to describe the probability, frequency, and consequences of disaster chains. Then, the model of the evolution of the emergency situation will be established, according to the real-time informaion of the dynamic development of the emergencies. Finally, based on the results of the situation assessment, and compraing with the ability of emergency response, a method for emergency plan making and optimizing will be derived. This project is one of the key issues of the major research plan “Study on unconventional emergencies management”, and it can provide the integration platforms with useful models, modules and tools of assessment