Chu GQ, Sun JH, Sun ZH, Chen T, Chen XF (2006) 'Quantitative risk assessment for occupant evacuation in building fires.' (Science Press USA Inc: Monmouth Junction) 351-354

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Keywords:

building fires, quantitative risk assessment, evacuation, event tree, probability distribution, time,

Abstract: quantitative risk assessment for occupant evacuation in building fires is presented with consideration of some uncertainties of evaluating number of people at risk and occurrence probability of every fire scenario. An extended ASET/RSET timeline assessment method is presented to evaluate number of people at risk. Occupant pre-movement time, one of the most important components of RSET is characterized by probability distribution. ASET is also characterized by probability distribution with consideration of uncertainties of input data. Event tree is used to analyze probable fire scenarios to evaluate occurrence probability of every fire scenario. Since probability of every fire scenario may be sensitive to risk assessment result, bounded intervals are used to express the uncertainty of probability of every influential event. Based on number of people at risk and occurrence probability of every fire scenario, expected risk to life (ERL) is presented to quantify the risk to occupant evacuation in a building fire.